v2.0 Financial Model
Financial Model v2.0 shipped at S123 close. Replaces v1.4 (which was JV-shaped). The Fluxx-standalone framing reflects Q-G89, JV / Fusion excluded from Fluxx canon. Source:
02_Working/Financial_Models/v2.0_Fluxx_Financial_Model.xlsx. Companion dashboard:v2.0_Fluxx_Financial_Dashboard.html.
The model is Kruze-shaped (Kruze Consulting venture-CFO templates), 12 tabs, $10M Series A ask placeholder targeting Jan 2027 close. The model is a scaffold for some lines (formulas not all populated); the dashboard captures the hardcoded snapshot values used in the investor narrative.
Salary placeholder note: All salary numbers referenced on this page are placeholders added by Claude. They will change once Kevin works on the financial model.
Tab inventory (12 tabs)
| # | Tab | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | README | How to use the model. Color conventions (blue = hardcoded input, black = formula, green = cross-sheet link, yellow fill = key Kevin assumption placeholder). Tab map. Boundary discipline (Q-G89 Fluxx-standalone, GlassBox vendor-only). |
| 2 | Summary | High-level KPI snapshot for board / pitch deck. Headline metrics Y1-Y5 (Revenue, YoY growth, Gross Margin, EBITDA, EBITDA Margin, Cash on hand, Runway, Core team FTE, Productions served, Hardware packages). Story narrative per year. The Ask: Series A target $10M placeholder, Use of Funds pointer, close target Jan 2027 (Y2 M1). |
| 3 | Assumptions | All editable inputs live here. Drives everything downstream. Funding plus Capital, Core Team Salaries by year, Outsourced Module Spend (Cat 1-4), AI Token Budget (Cat 5), Operating Expenses, One-Time plus Capex, Hardware Packages plus Operators, Revenue Drivers, Maintenance Phase Factor (25 percent Y3+). |
| 4 | Headcount | Hiring schedule plus comp bands per role per year. Includes CTO 2027 hire placeholder. Annotated as scaffold (currently mostly empty, Kevin gap-fill item). Mentor section not yet added (open call). |
| 5 | Revenue | Three revenue streams: Hardware Rental, IaaS Subscription, Per-Shot Processing. Driver formulas pull from Assumptions. |
| 6 | P&L | 5-year income statement. Salary subtotals (Exec / Dev / Variable). Plus opex, capex, EBITDA, gross margin, net income. Revenue:Labor ratio (10x target). |
| 7 | Cash Flow | Y1 monthly plus Y2-Y5 annual. Includes Series A close in Y2. |
| 8 | Balance Sheet | Three-statement requirement. Cash, A/R (30 days revenue), A/P (30 days opex), equity, retained earnings, equipment loan / lease ($500K-$2.5M placeholder). |
| 9 | Sources & Uses | Where each Series A dollar goes. Per-bucket allocation Y2-Y5. |
| 10 | KPI Dashboard | Burn rate, runway, gross margin, revenue growth, headcount, ratios. Maps to a16z 16 metrics framework. |
| 11 | Scenarios | Base / Upside / Downside revenue multipliers (Upside 1.0/1.3/1.5/1.4/1.3; Downside 1.0/0.6/0.7/0.75/0.8). Cost structure scenario-invariant. |
| 12 | Notes | Open items, Kevin gap-fill list, assumption sources, version history. |
Feed graph. Assumptions → Headcount / Revenue (drives) → P&L → Cash Flow → Balance Sheet → KPI Dashboard. Scenarios applies multipliers on Base revenue from P&L. Sources & Uses pulls cumulative Y2-Y5 deployment from P&L plus Cash Flow.
Y1-Y5 headline numbers
Source: v2.0 dashboard (hardcoded snapshot) plus Assumptions tab.
Revenue Y1-Y5
$0 → $2.4M → $6.5M → $16.5M → $31.1M.
Revenue mix (Hardware / IaaS / Per-Shot):
| Year | Hardware | IaaS | Per-Shot | Total | IaaS+Per-shot share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | n/a |
| Y2 | $840K | $600K | $960K | $2.4M | 65 percent |
| Y3 | $1.96M | $2.0M | $2.56M | $6.52M | 69.9 percent |
| Y4 | $4.48M | $5.6M | $6.4M | $16.48M | 72.8 percent |
| Y5 | $7.56M | $12.0M | $11.52M | $31.08M | 75.7 percent |
EBITDA Y1-Y5
Dashboard Y5 EBITDA $21.4M. The v2.0 model is a scaffold (formulas not all populated); v1.4 carry math gives Y2 EBITDA $366K (margin 15.2 percent), Y3 $1.9M (29.2 percent), Y4 $4.9M (29.5 percent), Y5 $13.7M (44.0 percent). The v2.0 dashboard $21.4M number reflects updated cost structure with the new salary bands and outsourced spend baked in.
Gross Margin
Dashboard Y5 90.6 percent. Derived from Revenue minus COGS (Cloud / GPU opex plus Operator retainers plus Warehouse) divided by Revenue.
Series A ask
$10M placeholder, Y2 M1 (Jan 2027). Notes tab calls out: “Industry median 2026 is $15M but Fluxx may target lower for faster close. Lock with investor conversations.”
Core team headcount Y1-Y5
Dashboard Y5 = 15 named roles. Dev team size (used for AI token calc): 3 → 7 → 10 → 12 → 14. Per Team Architecture the three numbers reconcile (8-10 FTE engineering core, 14 dev-team for token calc, 15 named total including founders, creative supervisors, Eric, Ari, sales).
Hardware and productions
| Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hardware packages (EOY) | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 |
| Productions served | 0 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 24 |
| Operator retainer per package | $150K/yr | $150K/yr | $150K/yr | $150K/yr | $150K/yr |
Cash on hand (EOY)
Y1 -$1.9M (gap, see Y1 Cash Gap below), Y2 $4.73M, Y3 $2.88M, Y4 $9.01M, Y5 $26.9M.
Driver assumptions
Revenue model (known, carried from v1.4)
Three streams:
- Hardware Rental. $35K/week × productions × weeks/production.
- IaaS Subscription. Average $150K / $250K / $350K / $500K per production × production count.
- Per-Shot Processing. $800/shot × shots/production × production count.
Productions ramp 0 → 4 → 8 → 16 → 24. Weeks 0 → 6 → 7 → 8 → 9. Shots 0 → 300 → 400 → 500 → 600.
Opex model (mixed)
Cat 1-5 outsourced module spend modeled as direct annual allocations (rough, lock with vendor RFPs). Operating expenses (creative software licenses, warehouse, G&A, travel, marketing, subscription tooling) carried from v1.4 with adjustments. Known directional, not locked.
Cloud cost line (placeholder)
$72K → $240K → $400K → $700K → $1M. Scaling placeholder; locks with cloud provider pick (Q-G49 §7 parked). Notes tab calls this out explicitly.
Payroll model (modeled, comp bands known, exact hires placeholder)
Core team comp by month by year. Founder cash compensation ramps. New Y2 hires at midpoint of dev plan bands. CTO band $250K-$300K placeholder per Kevin to confirm.
Sales cycle (lightly modeled)
Sales / BD lead added Y3. No explicit pipeline conversion model in v2.0. Sales Rep line carries from v1.4 logic. Productions-served counts (4/8/16/24) are top-down assumptions, not bottom-up pipeline-built.
AI token budget (Cat 5, modeled)
$175/dev/day midpoint × 250 days × team size = annual. Linear and direct. Dev team size 3 → 7 → 10 → 12 → 14. Resulting Cat 5: $131K (Y1) → $306K (Y2) → $438K (Y3) → $525K (Y4) → $613K (Y5).
Maintenance phase factor (modeled, Y3+)
25 percent of cumulative Y1-Y2 outsourced module spend, applied flat Y3-Y5. Dashboard shows $677K each of Y3, Y4, Y5.
Sensitivity points
Highest-leverage inputs across Assumptions tab plus Scenarios tab:
- Productions served (count). Linear driver on all three revenue streams. Upside 1.5x Y3 = 12 productions instead of 8, pulling revenue from $6.5M to $9.8M. Downside 0.7x Y3 = about 6 productions, $4.6M.
- Avg IaaS subscription per production. $150K → $500K ramp. By Y5 IaaS is $12M of $31M total (38.6 percent). If IaaS lands at $350K instead of $500K Y5 (still above Y4), Y5 IaaS drops to $8.4M and total to $27.5M.
- Per-shot processing fee. $800 fixed. At 600 shots × 24 productions Y5 = $11.5M (37 percent of revenue). $200 swing = $2.9M revenue swing.
- Y1 starting cash placeholder. $500K. If real number is higher (likely; dev plan implicit) the Y1 gap closes.
- Outsourced module spend Cat 1 plus Cat 4. Combined $300K Y1 / $1.2M Y2 / $1.5M Y3 / $500K Y4 / $200K Y5 = $3.7M cumulative. Vendor RFP variance 2-3x per dev plan §4. Could be $7M+ in heavy scenarios.
- CTO comp band. $250K-$300K placeholder × 4 years (Y2-Y5) = $1M-$1.2M difference at the band edges.
- Cloud / GPU provider opex. Y5 $1M placeholder. Provider pick (Q-G49 §7) could push this 50 percent+ either direction depending on stack choice.
- Series A ask size. $10M vs industry median $15M. $5M difference plus close timing flexibility.
Y1 cash gap
Source: v2.0 dashboard Slide 1 cash runway, explicit Y1 Cash Gap Flag.
The math. Y1 starting cash $500K placeholder. Y1 monthly cash trajectory (per dashboard runway values):
| Month | Cash on hand |
|---|---|
| Start | $500K |
| M1 | $343K |
| M2 | $185K |
| M3 | -$85K (negative) |
| M4 | -$354K |
| … | … |
| M12 | -$1,904,328 |
Y1 ends approximately $1.9M underwater before Series A close in Jan 2027.
Y1 drivers behind the gap
Y1 total spend:
- Core team comp about $724K
- Outsourced modules $706K ($406K GlassBox V7 remaining plus $200K Cat 1 plus $100K Cat 4)
- AI tokens $131K
- COGS (cloud plus ops plus warehouse) about $138K
- Other opex about $255K (creative software $75K, G&A $100K, travel $40K, marketing $25K, subscription tooling $15K)
- Proving-ground demo $450K one-time
- Cumulative about $2.4M against about $500K starting cash
Three resolution paths (dashboard explicit)
- Confirm actual Jan 2026 cash balance. $500K is a placeholder. The dev plan ($6.4M-$12M initial build envelope) implies existing seed runway materially higher than $500K. Updating Assumptions!B6 with the real number clears the flag if it’s high enough.
- Reduce Y1 outsourced spend. Defer Cat 1 starts, scale back the proving-ground demo. The $406K V7 remaining is the biggest fixed line, if Norman M4 plus M5 push to Y2, the gap closes.
- Bridge raise / convertible note in 2026. Pre-Series-A bridge to carry into Jan 2027 close.
A fourth path is implicit: accelerated Series A (close earlier than Jan 2027). Not surfaced explicitly in the dashboard flag.
Companion dashboard (4 slides)
02_Working/Financial_Models/v2.0_Fluxx_Financial_Dashboard.html is the 4-slide visualization companion. Hardcoded snapshot of model values for investor share without exposing the spreadsheet. Slide 1: cash runway plus Y1 cash gap flag. Slide 2: revenue mix Y1-Y5. Slide 3: P&L summary plus EBITDA inflection. Slide 4: KPI dashboard (gross margin, burn, productions, headcount).
Open items (Kevin gap-fill)
Per Notes tab plus dashboard explicit flags:
- Y1 starting cash. $500K placeholder vs actual Jan 2026 balance.
- Series A ask. $10M placeholder vs industry median 2026 $15M.
- CTO comp band. Founder-market data needed.
- Outsourced module $. Rough allocations vs vendor RFPs.
- Cloud / GPU opex. Scaling placeholder vs provider pick.
- AI token mix. $175/dev/day midpoint vs first-few-months actual usage.
- Equipment loan / lease. $500K-$2.5M cumulative placeholder.
- Module count per category. Current rough estimate 20-30 modules total; firm with scoping passes.
- Mentor section to add to Headcount tab.
Source dependencies
02_Working/Financial_Models/v2.0_Fluxx_Financial_Model.xlsx(primary, 12 tabs)02_Working/Financial_Models/v2.0_Fluxx_Financial_Dashboard.html(4-slide companion)02_Working/Financial_Models/v1.4_FG_JV_Financial_Model.xlsx(predecessor, JV-shaped; structure carry-forward)02_Working/Strategy/Dev_Roadmap/Fluxx_Development_Plan_v0.3.docx(cost driver source)
Audience visibility
investor, counsel.